For a long-term look at the fiscal challenges facing Oregon’s schools and local governments, of which PERS costs are by far the greatest cause for concern, take at look at this new report, Our Next 20, produced by the North Star Civic Foundation and ECONorthwest.

As the authors note, PERS costs represent a generational challenge. “Conditions may improve in the early 2040s, when legacy UAL costs are expected to ease, but by then the damage will be done.”

Among the report’s recommendations: “To avoid budget imbalances in schools, counties, and cities, State policymakers should seek to bring employer rates (for PERS) to close to 15-18% of payroll before the next rate increases in 2021.” By then, PERS payroll rates will otherwise approach 30% of payroll.

Read the full report here.